The Confident Chronicles: July 1, 2026
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In this edition:
The Bottom Line
2nd Quarter: The Market Has a Short Attention Span
Looking Ahead
Did you know?
Plan Confidence Model Updates
Disclosures
The Bottom Line:
The second quarter reminded us that the stock market can be noisy. Investors bounced from worrying about inflation, to interest rates, to world events, but strong businesses kept doing what they do best; earning money. By the end of June, the major stock indexes were back near all-time highs. The lesson? Long-term investing isn't about reacting to every headline. It's about staying disciplined and continuing to invest, one paycheck at a time. As we head into July, we'll be watching corporate earnings, interest rates, and the headlines so you don't have to!
2nd Quarter: The Market has a Short Attention Span
If you watched the news during the second quarter, you probably felt like investors had the attention span of a goldfish.
One week everyone was worried about inflation.
Then it was interest rates.
Then tariffs.
Then headlines surrounding the conflict with Iran.
Every few days there seemed to be a brand-new reason for investors to panic.
It reminded me of driving through a Florida thunderstorm.
The sky turns dark.
The rain starts pouring.
You can barely see the road ahead.
Then, almost as quickly as it arrived, the sun comes back out.
That's what the stock market felt like this quarter.
While investors were busy reacting to every headline, the companies inside your 401(k) kept doing what successful businesses have always done, they went to work. They continued earning money, introducing new products, hiring employees, and growing their businesses. Many companies, particularly those investing heavily in artificial intelligence, reported solid earnings that reminded investors what truly drives the stock market over the long run.
By the end of June, something interesting had happened.
Despite all the uncertainty, despite the scary headlines, despite the daily ups and downs; the major stock indexes finished the quarter near all-time highs.
It's an important reminder that headlines often come and go much faster than great businesses do.
That's why successful retirement investing isn't about guessing tomorrow's news.
It's about consistently investing through all of it.
If you continued contributing to your 401(k) this quarter and stayed committed to your long-term plan, congratulations! You did exactly what successful investors have been doing for decades.
The news will always give you a reason to worry.
The market will always give you a reason to be patient.
The trick is knowing which one deserves your attention.
Looking Ahead: What we’ll be watching in July
As we head into July, we'll be keeping a close eye on three things.
First, corporate earnings. Think of earnings season as "report card season" for America's biggest companies. Strong report cards can give the market confidence, while disappointing ones can create some bumps along the way. And for some reason, they always seem to have strong earnings!
Second, interest rates. Investors are still looking for clues about what the Federal Reserve may do next. Even small hints can move the markets, so we'll be paying close attention.
And finally, the headlines. If the second quarter taught us anything, it's that news can move the market in the short term—but strong businesses drive returns over the long term. I professionally believe that earnings season will triumph over the headlines in July. Time will tell.
As always, we'll be watching the markets... so you don't have to.
Did you know?
Retirement Is Built One Paycheck at a Time.
Most people don't become retirement millionaires because they invested a huge amount all at once.
They simply kept contributing every payday, for decades and let time (compounding) work its magic.
Small, consistent steps often beat big, unpredictable ones.
PLAN CONFIDENCE MODEL UPDATES:
FUTURE CONTRIBUTIONS:
Future contributions are monies that are added to your plan with every paycheck.
We monitor the future contributions monthly and are looking to direct these monies into investments that we hope to be “on sale” for the next 30 days.
If we are correct, this will allow you to buy more shares in your portfolio.
This month we are advising that you use the following:
· (Bonds) Long Term Bond
· (Stocks) Diversified Emerging Markets
· (Stocks) Technology
“Future Contributions” are an optional feature in Plan Confidence, and you may or may not receive this advice.
Please discuss this with your advisor if you have any questions.
The exact amounts you should allocate depend on the model that you are using.
These categories may or may not be available in your plan. If they are not available in your plan, we will recommend the closest available asset class and label it as a “proxy”.
You can find all substitutions on your “Proxy Page” within your dashboard.
Please log into your Participant Dashboard to see the exact allocations you should be using as of today.
CURRENT ALLOCATIONS - STRATEGIC MODELS:
Current Allocations are the monies currently in your plan.
Making changes to this money is commonly known as a “rebalance”.
Our “Strategic Models” combine the benefits of asset allocation and “buy and hold” strategies.
These models rebalance quarterly back to their risk “targets” and remain fully invested through all market cycles.
Our Strategic Models rebalance the first trading day of every quarter.
Strategic Models – UPDATED TODAY (07/01/2026)
Below are the newly recommended allocations for each model.
Check your Participant Dashboard for the exact advice on how to manage your plan!
Please talk to your adviser if you have any questions.
CURRENT ALLOCATIONS - TACTICAL MODELS:
Current Allocations are the monies currently in your plan.
Making changes to this money is known as a “rebalance”.
Some plans have trading restrictions on how often you can rebalance the money in your plan. Be sure to know your plan’s restrictions before implementing any tactical strategies.
Our “Tactical Models” combine the benefits of asset allocation and “momentum investing” strategies. These models rebalance periodically back to their risk “targets” and the targets can be changed at any time given the current market conditions.
These models may go through periods of time while holding larger amounts of cash than the Strategic Models.
Our Tactical Models may rebalance on any given day.
Please be sure to look for an email from support@planconfidence.com letting you know when to make changes.
Tactical Models Last UPDATED 06/11/2026
The exact amounts you should allocate depend on the model that you are using.
These categories may or may not be available in your plan. If they are not available in your plan, we will recommend the closest available asset class and label it as a “proxy”.
You can find all substitutions on your Proxy Page” within your dashboard.
Please log into your Participant Dashboard to see the exact allocations you should be using as of the last rebalance advice.
Please talk to your adviser if you have any questions.
This update has been written by Kevin T Clark, RF™.
All opinions expressed are those of the author and not that of Plan Confidence Corporation nor any other firm or individual.
Kevin T Clark, RF™ is the CEO and Co-founder of Plan Confidence Corporation.
Kevin is an “ERISA Nerd” and one of only a hundred(ish) Dalbar certified Registered Fiduciaries (RF™) in the United States.
He has been helping hard working Americans invest their money since 1997!
Plan Confidence Corporation is an SEC registered “internet only” investment firm specializing in providing advice to hard-working Americans investing in their employer’s retirement plans (401k, 403b, TSP, etc).
They have created proprietary software so hard-working Americans can receive professional, ongoing advice on their employer’s retirement plan from an adviser of their choosing!
PlanConfidence believes that EVERY 401(k) participant should be getting professional, ongoing advice from an adviser of their choosing!
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