The Confident Chronicles: April 1, 2026
In this edition:
2026 1st Quarter Review
New Strategic Allocations
Rationale from BlackRock
1st Quarter Review:
The first quarter of 2026 felt a lot like a roller coaster—some smooth climbs, a few stomach drops, and just enough twists to keep investors checking their accounts more than they probably should.
Stocks came out of the gate strong, riding the good vibes from late 2025.
Big tech companies were flexing early, helping push things higher.
But as the weeks went on, the market started acting a little… moody!
One day it was up, the next day it was down, and sometimes it felt like it couldn’t decide before lunchtime.
Why?
Investors were trying to make sense of inflation, interest rates, and what’s happening around the world—basically a giant game of “what’s next?”
Bonds, usually the calm, responsible adult in the room, decided to show a little personality too.
Interest rates stayed higher than what we got used to over the past few years, which is actually good news for long-term savers. But bond prices still bounced around as expectations kept changing—so even the “safe” side wasn’t totally boring.
For 401(k) investors, this quarter was a great reminder: markets don’t move in straight lines, and they definitely don’t care about your feelings.
The good news?
You don’t need to outsmart the market!
If you kept contributing, didn’t panic, and stuck to the advice delivered by Plan Confidence - you’re winning!
Long-term investing isn’t about reacting to every headline… it’s about staying in your seat while the ride does its thing.
Even if it feels a little bumpy!
PLAN CONFIDENCE MODEL UPDATES:
FUTURE CONTRIBUTIONS:
Future contributions are monies that are added to your plan with every paycheck.
We monitor the future contributions monthly and are looking to direct these monies into investments that we hope to be “on sale” for the next 30 days.
If we are correct, this will allow you to buy more shares in your portfolio.
This month we are advising that you use the following:
· (Bonds) High Yield Bond
· (Stocks) Small Value
· (Stocks) Technology
“Future Contributions” are an optional feature in Plan Confidence, and you may or may not receive this advice.
Please discuss this with your advisor if you have any questions.
The exact amounts you should allocate depend on the model that you are using.
These categories may or may not be available in your plan. If they are not available in your plan, we will recommend the closest available asset class and label it as a “proxy”.
You can find all substitutions on your “Proxy Page” within your dashboard.
Please log into your Participant Dashboard to see the exact allocations you should be using as of today.
CURRENT ALLOCATIONS - STRATEGIC MODELS:
Current Allocations are the monies currently in your plan.
Making changes to this money is commonly known as a “rebalance”.
Our “Strategic Models” combine the benefits of asset allocation and “buy and hold” strategies.
These models rebalance quarterly back to their risk “targets” and remain fully invested through all market cycles.
Our Strategic Models rebalance the first trading day of every quarter.
Strategic Models – UPDATED TODAY (04/01/2026)
Below are the newly recommended allocations for each model. Check your Participant Dashboard for the exact advice on how to manage your plan!
Below is the difference between this quarter’s allocation advice versus last quarter's allocation advice:
Please talk to your adviser if you have any questions.
CURRENT ALLOCATIONS - TACTICAL MODELS:
Current Allocations are the monies currently in your plan.
Making changes to this money is known as a “rebalance”.
Some plans have trading restrictions on how often you can rebalance the money in your plan. Be sure to know your plan’s restrictions before implementing any tactical strategies.
Our “Tactical Models” combine the benefits of asset allocation and “momentum investing” strategies. These models rebalance periodically back to their risk “targets” and the targets can be changed at any time given the current market conditions.
These models may go through periods of time while holding larger amounts of cash than the Strategic Models.
Our Tactical Models may rebalance on any given day.
Please be sure to look for an email from support@planconfidence.com letting you know when to make changes.
Tactical Models Last UPDATED 03/03/2026
The exact amounts you should allocate depend on the model that you are using.
These categories may or may not be available in your plan. If they are not available in your plan, we will recommend the closest available asset class and label it as a “proxy”.
You can find all substitutions on your “Proxy Page” within your dashboard.
Please log into your Participant Dashboard to see the exact allocations you should be using as of the last rebalance advice.
Please talk to your adviser if you have any questions.
BLACKROCK MODEL UPDATE:
We use information gathered from BlackRock to program our models. We rely on their research and outlook when making allocation recommendations for our models.
On 11/18/2025 BlackRock updated their overall asset allocation strategy which changed our models (SEE Strategic Allocation Section above for the exact changes).
Below is an excerpt on their reasoning and outlook:
Key Takeaways:
- Maintain 3% equity overweight but redistribute risk more intentionally, taking profits on winners anddialing back our most concentrated factor tilts while staying firmly risk-on
- Temper regional equity bets, modestly reducing U.S. and emerging markets (EM) overweights while relaxing (but not erasing) our underweight to international developed markets (DM)
- Seek to strengthen AI positioning, leveraging active strategies to target not only core tech builders but also early adopters using AI to create durable competitive advantages
- Add to defense stocks, focusing ona more diversified global approach aiming to capture the clearest beneficiaries of a potential multi-year spending cycle
- Aim to fortify the bond sleeve as a more reliable shock absorber, paring back credit-heavy exposures and rotating toward higher-quality, longer-duration government bonds
Trade Rationale:
This trade is about refinement, not retreat. We still like what we’ve liked, but the regime that favored bold, concentrated bets has been giving way to one that rewards more precision and breadth. We’re keeping the equity overweight because the macro backdrop still leans constructive: resilient growth, solid earnings, and disinflation bending the right way, despite some noise from energy prices. What we’re fine-tuning is how we take risk: more diversified, more selective, and built for a market that could be unforgiving to blunt positioning.
Our AI thesis is alive and well, and the recent choppiness hasn’t shaken us. What has changed is the nature of the opportunity. As we identified last year, you can’t just buy “tech” and ride the wave anymore. AI is reshuffling winners and losers across the market – within tech, across sectors, and across the broader economy. The new opportunity has been about investing in the companies that are effectively using AI to expand margins, lift productivity, and outpace slower-moving competitors. Within the AI stack itself, the dynamic is a bit different: AI’s disruptive forces have been shifting where value accrues. Software and semiconductors have diverged meaningfully in recent months, and we believe this sort of dispersion could intensify. That’s why we’re leaning into active strategies with skilled managers who can be surgical about where they allocate. In our view, broad passive exposure to mega-cap growth was an effective starting point; going forward, returns are more likely to reward more selectivity and skill in how that exposure is expressed.
Regionally, we’re turning down the volume without changing the playlist. U.S. exposure is trimmed modestly, not because we doubt American earnings power, but because a higher-dispersion market calls for a wider lens. Our international DM underweight narrows modestly, though characterizing that as a vote of confidence in Europe may be generous given the region’s limited exposure to the growth themes we prize and its heightened geopolitical sensitivity. EM, which has been a strong performer and a way to access the semiconductor supply chain fueling AI, also gets reduced after a hot run. The earnings story remains compelling, but a potentially stronger dollar and geopolitical crosswinds mean the risk-reward isn’t as clean as it was a few months ago.
On the fixed income side, credit spreads across investment grade, high yield, and EM debt are near historical tights. We’re barely getting paid for risk, and that math doesn’t work for us. So, we’re deliberately draining credit exposure and upgrading the quality and duration profile of the bond sleeve to seek behavior more like a genuine counterweight if equities wobble, rather than an echo of the same risks. In gold, the long-term thesis remains intact, but after a blistering rally we believe in taking gains, not just admiring them.
Meanwhile, we’re increasing exposure to defense stocks, an area with supportive fundamentals, structural tailwinds, and a thematic story that writes itself in today’s geopolitical environment. And speaking of geopolitics: we see it, we’re closely monitoring it, but historically the impact is more noise than signal, so we’re treating it as a risk to acknowledge rather than a reason to rewire the playbook.
This information should not be relied upon as investment advice, research, or a recommendation by BlackRock regarding (i) the funds, (ii) the use or suitability of the model portfolios or (iii) any security in particular. Only an investor and their financial professional know enough about their circumstances to make an investment decision.
This update has been written by Kevin T Clark, RF™.
All opinions expressed are those of the author and not that of Plan Confidence Corporation nor any other firm or individual.
Kevin T Clark, RF™ is the CEO and Co-founder of Plan Confidence Corporation.
Kevin is an “ERISA Nerd” and one of only a hundred(ish) Dalbar certified Registered Fiduciaries (RF™) in the United States.
He has been helping hard working Americans invest their money since 1997!
Plan Confidence Corporation is an SEC registered “internet only” investment firm specializing in providing advice to hard-working Americans investing in their employer’s retirement plans (401k, 403b, TSP, etc).
They have created proprietary software so hard-working Americans can receive professional, ongoing advice on their employer’s retirement plan from an adviser of their choosing!
PlanConfidence believes that EVERY 401(k) participant should be getting professional, ongoing advice from an adviser of their choosing!
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