The Confident Chronicles: October 1st, 2026
In this edition:
The Bottom Line
September in Review
Looking Ahead
Did you know?
Plan Confidence Model Updates
Disclosures
The Bottom Line:
September gave us another front-row seat to the market's favorite game: making plenty of noise while quietly moving ahead.
Stocks and bonds both took some sharp twists and turns as investors tried to guess what the Federal Reserve would do next. But underneath the daily ups and downs, the American economy and its biggest companies kept doing what they do best: showing up and getting the job done.
The lesson?
A bumpy month is not a broken plan.
Staying invested, tuning out the daily headlines, and letting time do the heavy lifting is how long-term wealth actually gets built.
We're watching the markets closely so you don't have to!
September in Review
If you peeked at your retirement account during September, you might have felt like the market had traded its coffee for espresso.
Early in the month, the Federal Reserve nudged interest rates higher. That had investors on edge, and long-term bonds took the worst of it.
Then cooler inflation numbers arrived in the final days of the month, and stocks bounced right back.
It reminded me of driving down a Florida highway in the middle of a summer storm. The wipers go to full speed, the rain comes down hard, and you grip the steering wheel a little tighter —
Then, ten minutes later, the sun is out and the road is dry.
That’s a pretty good picture of what September felt like for your investments.
While the financial news worried about every little wiggle in prices, the actual companies inside your 401(k) kept doing what they always do: serving customers, selling products, and growing their businesses.
Company profits kept holding up, which is exactly why a scary headline and a scary market are rarely the same thing.
By the time the month closed, stocks were up slightly and sitting near record highs. September’s noise never turned into damage.
If you stayed the course and followed our recommendations, give yourself a pat on the back.
You did exactly what successful, level-headed investors do.
The news will always give you a reason to worry.
Your long-term plan is your reason to stay calm.
Looking Ahead: What We’ll Be Watching in October
As we turn the calendar from September to October, we’re keeping our eyes on three things:
1. What the Fed Does Next: The Fed raised rates in September, but inflation cooled off at the end of the month, so nobody is quite sure what happens next. Every clue out of Washington will move prices around a little — in both directions.
2. Prices at the Pump and the Grocery Store: Energy costs have been running high, and that shows up everywhere. If they ease, it’s good news for your wallet and for the market.
3. Earnings Season: America’s biggest companies report their quarterly results in October. That’s the real test of whether all this market optimism is deserved.
Remember: short-term volatility is the price of admission for long-term growth.
I firmly believe solid profits and a strong economy will win out over October headlines.
As always, we’re watching the markets... so you don’t have to.
Did you know?
There's a secret ingredient in almost every retirement millionaire's story, and it's not what you think.
It's not picking the perfect stock. It's not timing the market. It's not even having a huge salary.
It’s consistency, compounded over time!
You don't need to be a Wall Street genius to retire well.
You just need to start, stay consistent, and give your money enough time to do its thing.
Every paycheck, every contribution, every month... it adds up more than you think!
PLAN CONFIDENCE MODEL UPDATES:
FUTURE CONTRIBUTIONS:
Future contributions are monies that are added to your plan with every paycheck.
Our short-term category screen identifies the three categories below with the weakest recent relative momentum.
This month we are advising that you use the following:
• (Bonds) Long Government
• (Stocks) Global Real Estate
• (Stocks) Utilities
Directing a limited portion of new contributions to out-of-favor categories may allow purchases at lower share prices if weakness persists.
This is a tactical, diversified contribution-allocation approach—not a prediction that these categories will decline—and performance can reverse quickly.
“Future Contributions” are an optional feature in Plan Confidence, and you may or may not receive this advice.
Please discuss this with your advisor if you have any questions.
The exact amounts you should allocate depend on the model that you are using.
These categories may or may not be available in your plan. If they are not available in your plan, we will recommend the closest available asset class and label it as a “proxy”.
You can find all substitutions on your “Proxy Page” within your dashboard.
Please log into your Participant Dashboard to see the exact allocations you should be using as of today.
CURRENT ALLOCATIONS - STRATEGIC MODELS:
Current Allocations are the monies currently in your plan.
Making changes to this money is commonly known as a “rebalance”.
Our “Strategic Models” combine the benefits of asset allocation and “buy and hold” strategies.
These models rebalance quarterly back to their risk “targets” and remain fully invested through all market cycles.
Our Strategic Models rebalance the first trading day of every quarter.
Strategic Models – UPDATED Today 10/01/2026
Here are the model allocations for this quarter:
Below is a comparison of the changes from last quarter:
Please talk to your adviser if you have any questions.
CURRENT ALLOCATIONS - TACTICAL MODELS:
Current Allocations are the monies currently in your plan. Making changes to this money is known as a “rebalance”.
Some plans have trading restrictions on how often you can rebalance the money in your plan. Be sure to know your plan’s restrictions before implementing any tactical strategies.
Our “Tactical Models” combine the benefits of asset allocation and “momentum investing” strategies. These models rebalance periodically back to their risk “targets” and the targets can be changed at any time given the current market conditions.
These models may go through periods of time while holding larger amounts of cash than the Strategic Models.
Our Tactical Models may rebalance on any given day.
Please be sure to look for an email from support@planconfidence.com letting you know when to make changes.
Strategic Models – UPDATED Today 10/01/2026
Below are the new model allocations:
Below is a comparison chart between showing the changes in the new models:
The exact amounts you should allocate depend on the model that you are using.
These categories may or may not be available in your plan. If they are not available in your plan, we will recommend the closest available asset class and label it as a “proxy”.
You can find all substitutions on your “Proxy Page” within your dashboard.
Please log into your Participant Dashboard to see the exact allocations you should be using as of the last rebalance advice.
Please talk to your adviser if you have any questions.
This update has been written by Kevin T Clark, RF™.
All opinions expressed are those of the author and not that of Plan Confidence Corporation nor any other firm or individual.
Kevin T Clark, RF™ is the CEO and Co-founder of Plan Confidence Corporation.
Kevin is an “ERISA Nerd” and one of only a hundred(ish) Dalbar certified Registered Fiduciaries (RF™) in the United States.
He has been helping hard working Americans invest their money since 1997!
Plan Confidence Corporation is an SEC registered “internet only” investment firm specializing in providing advice to hard-working Americans investing in their employer’s retirement plans (401k, 403b, TSP, etc).
They have created proprietary software so hard-working Americans can receive professional, ongoing advice on their employer’s retirement plan from an adviser of their choosing!
PlanConfidence believes that EVERY 401(k) participant should be getting professional, ongoing advice from an adviser of their choosing!
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